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1.
PeerJ ; 12: e16712, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38560463

ABSTRACT

Biotic and abiotic factors play a crucial role in determining the distribution of species. These factors dictate the conditions that must be met for a species to thrive in a particular area. Sister species that present some degree of niche overlap can shed light on how they are distributed and coexist in their environment. This study aims to investigate the geographical distribution and ecological niche of the sister species of snake-necked turtles Hydromedusa maximiliani and H. tectifera. By analyzing their niche overlap, we aim to obtain a better understanding of how these two species coexist and which variables are determining their occurences. We applied species distribution modeling and compared the niches using the niche equivalence and similarity tests. Our findings show that the distribution of H. maximiliani is most influenced by temperature seasonality and isothermality, while H. tectifera is most affected by the temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal range. In addition, our results suggest that the niche expressed by H. maximiliani retained ecological characteristics that can accurately predict the H. tectifera distribution, but the inverse is not true. In this sense, differences are not solely due to the geographic availability of environmental conditions but can reflect niche restrictions, such as competition.


Subject(s)
Turtles , Animals , Ecosystem , Temperature
2.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1365470, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38562254

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Research on the outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) of a university campus is beneficial to the physical and mental health of college students. Methods: In this study, the OTC of students attending Tibet University in Lhasa, which experiences high-altitude cold climate conditions, under different activity intensities was studied using field measurements and a questionnaire survey. Results: With the increase in activity intensity, the comfort physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) value gradually increased in summer, while the comfortable PET value gradually decreased in winter. The most comfortable PET value is 17.6°C in summer and 11.5°C in winter. The neutral PET of Tibetan college students during outdoor activities in summer was 16.3°C, and the neutral PET of outdoor activities in winter was 12.1°C. Gender and ethnicity had different effects on thermal sensation under different activity intensities. Under vigorous-intensity activities, PET in winter and summer had the greatest influence on thermal sensation. The situation was different under moderate-intensity activity. PET had the greatest influence on thermal sensation in summer, and Tmrt had the greatest influence on thermal sensation in winter. Discussion: These findings provide a basis for an improved design of the outdoor environment under different outdoor activity intensities in high-altitude areas.


Subject(s)
Altitude , Climate , Humans , Seasons , Temperature , Surveys and Questionnaires
3.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17260, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38563236

ABSTRACT

The impact of anthropogenic global warming has induced significant upward dispersal of trees to higher elevations at alpine treelines. Assessing vertical deviation from current uppermost tree distributions to potential treeline positions is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to evolving global climate. However, due to data resolution constraints and research scale limitation, comprehending the global pattern of alpine treeline elevations and driving factors remains challenging. This study constructed a comprehensive quasi-observational dataset of uppermost tree distribution across global mountains using Google Earth imagery. Validating the isotherm of mean growing-season air temperature at 6.6 ± 0.3°C as the global indicator of thermal treeline, we found that around two-thirds of uppermost tree distribution records significantly deviated from it. Drought conditions constitute the primary driver in 51% of cases, followed by mountain elevation effect which indicates surface heat (27%). Our analyses underscore the multifaceted determinants of global patterns of alpine treeline, explaining divergent treeline responses to climate warming. Moisture, along with temperature and disturbance, plays the most fundamental roles in understanding global variation of alpine treeline elevation and forecasting alpine treeline response to ongoing global warming.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Trees , Trees/physiology , Temperature , Cold Temperature , Climate , Altitude
4.
Urolithiasis ; 52(1): 54, 2024 Apr 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38564058

ABSTRACT

Urolithiasis has a seasonal pattern, with an established increase in incidence during the summer months. This study aims to assess the impact of high ambient temperatures on emergency room (ER) visits related to renal colic (RC) in a Middle Eastern country over the past decade. Population data were extracted using the MDClone Big Data platform. We recorded demographic and clinical data on all RC-associated ER visits from January 2012 to April 2023 and calculated the heat index (HI) that combines daily average coastal plane temperatures and humidity percentages. There was a total of 12,770 ER visits (median age 48 years, 9,236 (72%) males). The number of visits increased during the hottest months (July-October), with the highest numbers recorded during August. The number of visits remained stable throughout the study. We identified a linear association between humidity and the incidence of ER visits (p = 0.002), and a non-linear association between ambient temperature (p < 0.0001) and HI (p < 0.0001). There was a direct relationship between high temperatures and ER visits on the same day (risk ratio [RR]: 1.75, p = 0.036), with a 2-day lag (RR: 1.123, p = 0.024). In Conclusion, there is a significant relationship between temperature, humidity, HI, and the number of ER visits due to RC. Adjusted resource allocation and healthcare workforce availability are essential for managing additional cases during heat waves. Clinical implications: Increased demand is expected during heatwaves and within a 2-day lag, emphasizing the importance of proactive strategies to effectively manage RC patients.


Subject(s)
Renal Colic , Urolithiasis , Male , Humans , Middle Aged , Female , Renal Colic/epidemiology , Renal Colic/etiology , Renal Colic/therapy , Temperature , Middle East/epidemiology , Emergency Service, Hospital
5.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(5): 410, 2024 Apr 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38564063

ABSTRACT

A limited number of meteorological stations and sparse data challenge microclimate assessment in urban areas. Therefore, it is necessary to complement these data with additional measurements to achieve a denser spatial coverage, enabling a detailed representation of the city's microclimatic features. In this study, conducted in Zagreb, Croatia, mobile air temperature measurements were utilized and compared with satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST). Here, air temperature measurements were carried out using bicycles and an instrument with a GPS receiver and temperature probe during a heat wave in June 2021, capturing the spatial pattern of air temperature to highlight the city's microclimate characteristics (i.e. urban heat load; UHL) in extremely hot weather conditions. Simultaneously, remotely sensed LST was retrieved from the Landsat-8 satellite. Air temperature measurements were compared to city-specific street type classification, while neighbourhood heat load characteristics were analysed based on local climate zones (LCZ) and LST. Results indicated significant thermal differences between surface types and urban forms and between street types and LCZs. Air temperatures reached up to 35 °C, while LST exceeded 40 °C. City parks, tree-lined streets and areas near blue infrastructure were 1.5-3 °C cooler than densely built areas. Temperature contrasts between LCZs in terms of median LST were more emphasised and reached 9 °C between some classes. These findings highlight the importance of preserving green areas to reduce UHL and enhance urban resilience. Here, exemplified by the city of Zagreb, it has been demonstrated that the use of multiple datasets allows a comprehensive understanding of temperature patterns and their implications for urban climate research.


Subject(s)
Hot Temperature , Satellite Imagery , Croatia , Environmental Monitoring , Temperature
6.
Luminescence ; 39(4): e4732, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38556715

ABSTRACT

In the present work, glass samples in the (100 - x)B2O3-xLi2O binary system, with x varying from 30 to 50 mol%, were prepared using the conventional melting and moulding method, with the main objective of evaluating the thermoluminescence response when exposing these materials to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Complementary analysis based on density, optical absorption on the UV-visible region (UV-vis absorbance), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy on the medium region, X-ray diffraction, and differential thermal analysis measurements were performed. Thermoluminescence measurements of vitreous samples showed glow curves with at least one peak with a maximum temperature of ~170°C after exposure to UV radiation in the temperature range 50-250°C. Samples were also exposed to beta radiation in the temperature range 25-275°C, also showing single peaks with a maximum temperature of ~150°C.


Subject(s)
Beta Particles , Borates , Borates/chemistry , Lithium Compounds , Temperature
7.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 7767, 2024 04 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38565938

ABSTRACT

XynR is a thermostable alkaline GH10 xylanase, for which we have previously examined the effects of saturation mutagenesis at position 315 on enzyme alkaliphily, and found that at pH 10, the activities of variants could be ordered as follows: T315Q > T315S = T315N > T315H = wild-type XynR (WT) > 15 other variants. In this study, we sought to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the variable activity of these different variants. Crystallographic analysis revealed that the Ca2+ ion near position 315 in WT was absent in the T315Q variant. We accordingly hypothesized that the enhancement of alkaliphily in T315Q, and probably also in the T315H, T315N, and T315S variants, could be ascribed to an activity-stability trade-off associated with a reduction in stability due to the lack of this Ca2+ ion. Consistent with expectations, the alkaline resistance of T315H, T315N, T315Q, and T315S, evaluated through the pH-dependence of stability at 0 mM CaCl2 under alkaline conditions, was found to be lower than that of WT: the residual activity at pH 11 of WT was 78% while those of T315H, T315N, T315Q, and T315S were 0, 9, 0, and 43%, respectively. In addition, the thermostabilities of these four variants, as assessed using the denaturing temperatures (Tm) at 0 mM CaCl2 based on ellipticity at 222 nm in circular dichroism measurements, were lower than that of WT by 2-8 °C. Furthermore, the Tm values of WT and variants at 5 mM CaCl2 were higher than those at 0 mM CaCl2 by 6-11 °C. Collectively, our findings in this study indicate that mutation of the T residue at position 315 of XynR to H, N, Q, and S causes an increase in the alkaliphily of this enzyme, thereby reducing its stability.


Subject(s)
Endo-1,4-beta Xylanases , Calcium Chloride , Endo-1,4-beta Xylanases/chemistry , Enzyme Stability , Mutagenesis , Mutation , Temperature , Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
8.
AAPS J ; 26(3): 40, 2024 Apr 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38570383

ABSTRACT

In a lyophilized protein/disaccharide system, the ability of the disaccharide to form a homogeneous mixture with the protein and to slow the protein mobility dictates the stabilization potential of the formulation. Human serum albumin was lyophilized with sucrose or trehalose in histidine, phosphate, or citrate buffer. 1H T1 relaxation times were measured by solid-state NMR spectroscopy and were used to assess the homogeneity and mobility of the samples after zero, six, and twelve months at different temperatures. The mobility of the samples decreased after 6 and 12 months storage at elevated temperatures, consistent with structural relaxation of the amorphous disaccharide matrix. Formulations with sucrose had lower mobility and greater stability than formulations with trehalose.


Subject(s)
Sucrose , Trehalose , Humans , Trehalose/chemistry , Temperature , Serum Albumin, Human , Drug Stability , Disaccharides , Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy , Freeze Drying
9.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17255, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38572638

ABSTRACT

Global warming is one of the most significant and widespread effects of climate change. While early life stages are particularly vulnerable to increasing temperatures, little is known about the molecular processes that underpin their capacity to adapt to temperature change during early development. Using a quantitative proteomics approach, we investigated the effects of thermal stress on octopus embryos. We exposed Octopus berrima embryos to different temperature treatments (control 19°C, current summer temperature 22°C, or future projected summer temperature 25°C) until hatching. By comparing their protein expression levels, we found that future projected temperatures significantly reduced levels of key eye proteins such as S-crystallin and retinol dehydrogenase 12, suggesting the embryonic octopuses had impaired vision at elevated temperature. We also found that this was coupled with a cellular stress response that included a significant elevation of proteins involved in molecular chaperoning and redox regulation. Energy resources were also redirected away from non-essential processes such as growth and digestion. These findings, taken together with the high embryonic mortality observed under the highest temperature, identify critical physiological functions of embryonic octopuses that may be impaired under future warming conditions. Our findings demonstrate the severity of the thermal impacts on the early life stages of octopuses as demonstrated by quantitative proteome changes that affect vision, protein chaperoning, redox regulation and energy metabolism as critical physiological functions that underlie the responses to thermal stress.


Subject(s)
Octopodiformes , Animals , Temperature , Climate Change , Global Warming , Oceans and Seas
10.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17249, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38572713

ABSTRACT

Warming as well as species introductions have increased over the past centuries, however a link between cause and effect of these two phenomena is still unclear. Here we use distribution records (1813-2023) to reconstruct the invasion histories of marine non-native macrophytes, macroalgae and seagrasses, in the Mediterranean Sea. We defined expansion as the maximum linear rate of spread (km year-1) and the accumulation of occupied grid cells (50 km2) over time and analyzed the relation between expansion rates and the species' thermal conditions at its native distribution range. Our database revealed a marked increase in the introductions and spread rates of non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea since the 1960s, notably intensifying after the 1990s. During the beginning of this century species velocity of invasion has increased to 26 ± 9 km2 year-1, with an acceleration in the velocity of invasion of tropical/subtropical species, exceeding those of temperate and cosmopolitan macrophytes. The highest spread rates since then were observed in macrophytes coming from native regions with minimum SSTs two to three degrees warmer than in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, most non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean (>80%) do not exceed the maximum temperature of their range of origin, whereas approximately half of the species are exposed to lower minimum SST in the Mediterranean than in their native range. This indicates that tropical/subtropical macrophytes might be able to expand as they are not limited by the colder Mediterranean SST due to the plasticity of their lower thermal limit. These results suggest that future warming will increase the thermal habitat available for thermophilic species in the Mediterranean Sea and continue to favor their expansion.


Subject(s)
Introduced Species , Seaweed , Mediterranean Sea , Ecosystem , Temperature
11.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(5): 426, 2024 Apr 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38573396

ABSTRACT

This article, based on OMI data products, utilizes spatial distribution, ozone-sensitive control areas, Pearson correlation methods, and the Ben-MAP model to study the changes in ozone column concentration from 2018 to 2022, along with the influencing factors and the health of populations exposed to ozone. The findings suggest a spatial variation in the ozone column concentration within the study area, with an increasing trend observed from west to east and from south to north. Over time, the ozone column concentration exhibits an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease, with the peak concentration observed in 2019 at 37.45 DU and the nadir recorded in 2022 at 33.10 DU. The monthly mean distribution exhibits an inverted V-shaped pattern during the warm season from April to September, with a peak in July (46.71 DU) and a trough in April (35.29 DU). The Hetao Plain Oasis area is primarily a NOx control area in sensitive control areas. The concentrations of O3 and precursor HCHO exhibited significant positive correlations with vegetation index and air temperature, while showing significant negative correlations with wind speed and air pressure. The precursor NO2, in contrast, exhibited a significant negative correlation with both the vegetation index and relative humidity. Based on the ground-based monitoring sites and analysis of human health benefits, the study area witnessed 1944.45 deaths attributed to warm season O3 exposure in 2018, with a subsequent reduction in premature deaths by 149.7, 588.2, and 231.75 for the years 2019 to 2021 respectively when compared to the baseline year. In 2021, the observed decrease in warm-season O3 concentration within that region compared to 2018 resulted in a significant reduction, leading to the prevention of 126 premature deaths.


Subject(s)
Environmental Monitoring , Ozone , Humans , Mortality, Premature , Ozone/toxicity , Seasons , Temperature
12.
An Acad Bras Cienc ; 96(1): e20230859, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38597501

ABSTRACT

This study aims to prepare oil-modified alkyd resins using a linseed oil/canola oil (LO/CO) blend and waste PET depolymerization product, suitable for environmentally friendly coating applications. Waste PET flakes obtained from grinding post-consumer water bottles were depolymerized by the aminoglycolysis reaction at high pressure. Raw depolymerization product (DP) was used in the synthesis of four components, 50% oil alkyd resins by monoglyceride method. DP has partly replaced the dibasic acid component in the PET-based alkyd formulations. Besides PET-based alkyds, reference alkyds without DP were also synthesized for comparison. Then, the surface coating properties and thermal behaviors of alkyd films were determined. The effect of DP usage and the changing ratios of LO/CO blend on coating properties and thermal behaviors of alkyd films were investigated. In addition, the optimum LO/CO blend ratio which is compatible with alkyd formulation was attempted to be determined. At the end of this study, glossy, soft/medium-hard films were obtained with excellent adhesion, impact strength, and chemical resistance. Thermal resistance and final thermal oxidative degradation temperature increased with adding DP to the alkyd formulation. Using LO/CO blend in the formulations affected oxidation rate and ratio, hence, drying time/degree and oxidative stability of alkyd films.


Subject(s)
Linseed Oil , Resins, Plant , Rapeseed Oil , Temperature , Surface Properties
13.
World J Microbiol Biotechnol ; 40(5): 157, 2024 Apr 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38592517

ABSTRACT

This research investigated the physicochemical, microbiological, and bacterial diversity of Jben cheese, a popular artisanal variety in Morocco. The bacterial diversity was explored using culture-independent methods, including temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (TTGE), denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), and high-throughput sequencing (HTS). Significant intra-sample differences were observed for most physicochemical parameters within each milk type, while inter-sample differences occurred between cow and goat cheeses for dry matter and ash. Jben cheese exhibited distinct characteristics, with low pH values of 3.96, 4.16, and 4.18 for cow, goat, and mixed cheeses, respectively. Goat cheeses had higher fat (49.23 g/100 g), ash (1.91 g/100 g), and dry matter (36.39 g/100 g) than cow cheeses. All cheeses displayed high microbial counts, with a notable prevalence of the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) group, averaging 8.80 ± 0.92 log CFU/g. Jben cheese also displayed high contamination levels with total coliforms, faecal coliforms, yeast, and molds. Fatty acid profiling revealed fraudulent practices in Jben cheese marketing, with cow or mixed cheeses sold as goat cheese, as proven by low capric acid concentration. HTS analysis of Jben cheese identified ten genera and twenty-four species, highlighting Lactococcus lactis as predominant. TTGE and DGGE confirmed the presence of L. lactis but failed to provide the detailed profile achieved through HTS analysis. HTS has been demonstrated to be more reliable, whereas TTGE/DGGE methods, though informative, were more time-consuming and less reliable. Despite limitations, the combined use of TTGE, DGGE, and HTS provided a comprehensive view of indigenous bacterial communities in Jben cheese, identifying L. lactis as the main species.


Subject(s)
Cheese , Animals , Cattle , Female , RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics , Temperature , Electrophoresis , Goats , Saccharomyces cerevisiae
14.
Europace ; 26(4)2024 Mar 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38582974

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The ultra-low-temperature cryoablation (ULTC) ablation system using -196°C N2 cryogen has been reported to create lesions with freeze duration-dependent depth titratable to over 10 mm with minimum attenuation by scar. Cryocure-VT (NCT04893317) was a first-in-human clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of a novel, purpose-built ULTC catheter in endocardial ablation of scar-dependent ventricular tachycardias (VTs). METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective, multi-centre study enrolled patients referred for de novo or second ablations of recurrent monomorphic VT of both ischaemic and non-ischaemic aetiologies. Primary safety and efficacy endpoints of the study were freedom from device- or procedure-related major adverse events (MAEs) up to 30 days post-ablation, acute non-inducibility of clinical VTs at the end of the procedure, and freedom from sustained VT or implantable defibrillator intervention at 6 months. Ultra-low-temperature cryoablation was performed in 64 patients (age 67 ± 11 years, 78% ischaemic, ejection fraction = 35 ± 10%) at 9 centres. The primary acute effectiveness endpoint was achieved in 94% (51/54) of patients in whom post-ablation induction was attempted. There were no protocol-defined MAEs; four procedure-related serious adverse events resolved without clinical sequelae. At 6-month follow-up, 38 patients (60.3%) remained VT-free, and freedom from defibrillator shock was 81.0%, with no significant difference between ischaemic and non-ischaemic cohorts. In 47 patients with defibrillator for at least 6 months prior to the ablation, the VT burden was reduced from median of 4, inter-quartile range (IQR, 1-9) to 0, IQR (0-2). CONCLUSION: In this first-in-human multi-centre experience, endocardial ULTC ablation of monomorphic VT appears safe and effective in patients with both ischaemic-cardiomyopathy and non-ischaemic-cardiomyopathy. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04893317.


Subject(s)
Cardiomyopathies , Catheter Ablation , Cryosurgery , Tachycardia, Ventricular , Humans , Middle Aged , Aged , Treatment Outcome , Cryosurgery/adverse effects , Prospective Studies , Temperature , Cicatrix/complications , Tachycardia, Ventricular/diagnosis , Tachycardia, Ventricular/etiology , Tachycardia, Ventricular/surgery , Catheter Ablation/adverse effects , Cardiomyopathies/complications , Cardiomyopathies/diagnosis , Cardiomyopathies/surgery
15.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 8237, 2024 04 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38589450

ABSTRACT

Coffee professionals have long known that the "roast profile," i.e., the temperature versus time inside the roaster, strongly affects the flavor and quality of the coffee. A particularly important attribute of brewed coffee is the perceived sourness, which is known to be strongly correlated to the total titratable acidity (TA). Most prior work has focused on laboratory-scale roasters with little control over the roast profile, so the relationship between roast profile in a commercial-scale roaster and the corresponding development of TA to date remains unclear. Here we investigate roast profiles of the same total duration but very different dynamics inside a 5-kg commercial drum roaster, and we show that the TA invariably peaks during first crack and then decays to its original value by second crack. Although the dynamics of the TA development varied with roast profile, the peak TA surprisingly exhibited almost no statistically significant differences among roast profiles. Our results provide insight on how to manipulate and achieve desired sourness during roasting.


Subject(s)
Coffea , Hot Temperature , Temperature , Time
16.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 8235, 2024 04 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38589665

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the germination capacity (endogenous factor) of Petagnaea gussonei (Spreng.) Rauschert, an endemic monospecific plant considered as a relict species of the ancient Mediterranean Tertiary flora. This investigation focused also on the temporal trends of soil-use, climate and desertification (exogenous factors) across the natural range of P. gussonei. The final germination percentage showed low values between 14 and 32%, the latter obtained with GA3 and agar at 10 °C. The rising temperatures in the study area will further increase the dormancy of P. gussonei, whose germination capacity was lower and slower at temperatures higher than 10 °C. A further limiting factor of P. gussonei is its dormancy, which seems to be morpho-physiological. Regarding climate trends, in the period 1931-2020, the average temperature increased by 0.5 °C, from 15.4 to 15.9 °C, in line with the projected climate changes throughout the twenty-first century across the Mediterranean region. The average annual rainfall showed a relatively constant value of c. 900 mm, but extreme events grew considerably in the period 1991-2020. Similarly, the land affected by desertification expanded in an alarming way, by increasing from 21.2% in 2000 to 47.3% in 2020. Soil-use changes created also a complex impacting mosaic where c. 40% are agricultural areas. The effective conservation of P. gussonei should be multilateral by relying on germplasm banks, improving landscape connectivity and vegetation cover, and promoting climate policies.


Subject(s)
Apiaceae , Plant Dormancy , Plant Dormancy/physiology , Soil , Conservation of Natural Resources , Climate Change , Seeds/physiology , Germination/physiology , Plants , Temperature
17.
Environ Sci Technol ; 58(14): 6226-6235, 2024 Apr 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38557021

ABSTRACT

The updated climate models provide projections at a fine scale, allowing us to estimate health risks due to future warming after accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Here, we utilized an ensemble of high-resolution (25 km) climate simulations and nationwide mortality data from 306 Chinese cities to estimate death anomalies attributable to future warming. Historical estimation (1986-2014) reveals that about 15.5% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):13.1%, 17.6%] of deaths are attributable to nonoptimal temperature, of which heat and cold corresponded to attributable fractions of 4.1% (eCI:2.4%, 5.5%) and 11.4% (eCI:10.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the national average temperature was projected to increase by 1.45, 2.57, and 4.98 °C by the 2090s, respectively. The corresponding mortality fractions attributable to heat would be 6.5% (eCI:5.2%, 7.7%), 7.9% (eCI:6.3%, 9.4%), and 11.4% (eCI:9.2%, 13.3%). More than half of the attributable deaths due to future warming would occur in north China and cardiovascular mortality would increase more drastically than respiratory mortality. Our study shows that the increased heat-attributable mortality burden would outweigh the decreased cold-attributable burden even under a moderate climate change scenario across China. The results are helpful for national or local policymakers to better address the challenges of future warming.


Subject(s)
Cold Temperature , Hot Temperature , Temperature , Cities , China/epidemiology , Climate Change , Mortality
18.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci ; 379(1902): 20230011, 2024 May 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38583474

ABSTRACT

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.


Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Ecosystem , Humans , Tundra , Climate Change , Temperature
19.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 8137, 2024 04 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38584175

ABSTRACT

The design and implementation of Philaenus spumarius control strategies can take advantage of properly calibrated models describing and predicting the phenology of vector populations in agroecosystems. We developed a temperature-driven physiological-based model based on the system of Kolmogorov partial differential equations to predict the phenological dynamics of P. spumarius. The model considers the initial physiological age distribution of eggs, the diapause termination process, and the development rate functions of post-diapausing eggs and nymphal stages, estimated from data collected in laboratory experiments and field surveys in Italy. The temperature threshold and cumulative degree days for egg diapause termination were estimated as 6.5 °C and 120 DD, respectively. Preimaginal development rate functions exhibited lower thresholds ranging between 2.1 and 5.0 °C, optimal temperatures between 26.6 and 28.3 °C, and upper threshold between 33.0 and 35 °C. The model correctly simulates the emergence of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th nymphal instars, key stages to target monitoring actions and control measures against P. spumarius. Precision in simulating the phenology of the 1st and 2nd nymphal stages was less satisfactory. The model is a useful rational decision tool to support scheduling monitoring and control actions against the late and most important nymphal stages of P. spumarius.


Subject(s)
Diapause , Hemiptera , Animals , Temperature , Hemiptera/physiology , Italy , Nymph
20.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 8213, 2024 04 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38589576

ABSTRACT

Malaria is a major health threat in sub-Sahara Africa, especially for children under five. However, there is considerable heterogeneity between areas in malaria risk reported, associated with environmental and climatic. We used data from Togo to explore spatial patterns of malaria incidence. Geospatial covariate datasets, including climatic and environmental variables from the 2017 Malaria Indicator Survey in Togo, were used for this study. The association between malaria incidence and ecological predictors was assessed using three regression techniques, namely the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), spatial lag model (SLM), and spatial error model (SEM). A total of 171 clusters were included in the survey and provided data on environmental and climate variables. Spatial autocorrelation showed that the distribution of malaria incidence was not random and revealed significant spatial clustering. Mean temperature, precipitation, aridity and proximity to water bodies showed a significant and direct association with malaria incidence rate in the SLM model, which best fitted the data according to AIC. Five malaria incidence hotspots were identified. Malaria incidence is spatially clustered in Togo associated with climatic and environmental factors. The results can contribute to the development of specific malaria control plans taking geographical variation into consideration and targeting transmission hotspots.


Subject(s)
Malaria , Child , Humans , Togo/epidemiology , Malaria/epidemiology , Temperature , Spatial Analysis , Least-Squares Analysis , Incidence
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